Over the past week I’ve been browsing the 2014 sales numbers for consoles. One thing struck me about the numbers as I was crunching them. This console generation is getting killed … by by last generation’s consoles.
Well, okay, killed is probably an exaggeration. Maybe cannibalized is a better word. Consider: while the top three selling games in 2014 so far have been for current gen consoles (Watch Dogs [PS4], Mario Kart 8 [WiiU], Titanfall [XBO]), the list as a whole is lousy with last gen titles. Minecraft for X360 is the fourth bestselling console game this year; GTAV for PS3 is sixth; and CoD: Ghosts for PS3 and X360 come in seventh and eighth; and Watchdogs for PS3 rounds the list out at tenth. Fully half of top 10 are last gen. In addition, PS3 has sold over twice as many games this year as PS4, while X360 has sold more than three times what XBO has.
There’s no doubt that the last generation of consoles is still thriving, and it is hurting the success of the current generation.
Those who follow the numbers aren’t rosy about the future of the current crop of consoles. Back in March, Tech Crunch called the console market “in crisis“. Recently, the website Daily Finance declared “game over” for the console market. There’s plenty of reasons why this may be the case: stiff competition from mobile devices; the inflating price of games on disc; missteps like Microsoft’s botched XBO rollout.
And then there’s backwards compatibility. By not making their consoles backwards compatible, Sony and Microsoft bet on people abandoning their old systems and embracing the new ones. Really, what happened was that they gave their most devoted fans a choice: purchase a new console that shuts out their entire existing library of games, or continue using the system they love, especially since so many big new releases are hitting those consoles anyway. And so far, they appear to be losing that bet.
It doesn’t help that game designers are still fully on board with the last generation. How many PS4s and XBOs might Destiny have sold this September if Bungie had made it exclusive to those consoles? But no one can blame them, with last gen game sales still so brisk.
And yes, it’s true that a last gen console could sit side by side with a current gen console. But that’s not only annoying for the player, it’s also one more device competing for precious shelf space and input slots. Our entertainment centers are increasingly crowded with set-top boxes, DVR devices, stereo equipment, and all the other things we want to hook up to our televisions. Making room for one more device isn’t as easy as it used to be.
There’s also the library problem to consider. Those who are considering buying the current consoles aren’t shy about complaining that there aren’t enough games to justify purchasing. It’s common in forums and comments sections to read things like “I’d buy a PS4, but there’s nothing I want to play on it,” or “I’m waiting a year until there’s more games for XBO.” Just imagine if one of XBO’s sales pitches was “Compatible with our entire library of Xbox 360 games!” No one would be complaining about sparse game libraries if that were the case.
Of course, backwards c0mpatibility would have ruined plans for streaming services like PlayStation Now or EA Access. But until prices for Now become more reasonable it’s hardly a replacement for backwards compatibility. Even then, there’s still the problem of last generation’s most dedicated fans being unwilling to pay again to play the large libraries of games they already own.
It’s worth noting that the one console who got backwards compatibility right is Wii U. Any Wii game will run on the Wii U through a Wii interface emulator built into the OS. When the time came for my own kids to consider upgrading from Wii to Wii U it was a no-brainer, because they could still play all their old games with it. They play them all the time (I can hear Animal Crossing: City Folk in the background as I type this). While backwards compatibility alone hasn’t been enough to prevent Wii U from struggling to take off since its 2012 debut, it’s definitely a point in the console’s favor.
Ultimately, both Sony and Microsoft are victims of their own last gen success. There’s no one thing that any analyst can point to and say “This is the thing that’s killing the market,” but the decision to leave backwards compatibility out has to rank among the more compelling problems plaguing this generation. Sure, adding backwards compatibility would have presented unique engineering and software design challenges, but the people making these things are smart; they could have figured it out.
Note: For purposes of this discussion, sales numbers and rankings for the 3DS have not been factored in.
