The reappearance of TheSurvivor2299.com has caused a new stir in the Fallout fan-base and community. At least this time the website is not online as a Fallout 4 hoax, but is directly connected to the development of a mod. In any case, Fallout 4 speculation has been booming again, but it might just be in vain. Following GDC 2014, Obsidian Entertainment has announced that it is working on an MMO game similar to World of Tanks, entitled Armored Warfare.
In case you forgot, Obsidian was tasked by Bethesda with developing Fallout: New Vegas, a game that released in 2010, and the last game to come out in the Fallout franchise. With Armored Warfare now on the horizon, as well as Pillars of Eternity deep in development, Obsidian doesn’t seem to have any remaining manpower to take on the development of Fallout 4. While Fallout: New Vegas was a great and enjoyable title and Obsidian did a great job with the game, Fallout 4 will most likely be handled either internally by Bethesda, or outsourced to a different developer.
What’s the reasoning behind this? Well, first of all, Pillars of Eternity is a massive project. It started out as a modest idea on Kickstarter, but based on feedback and Kickstarter donations (which generated over $4 million in donations), Obsidian has decided to greatly increase the magnitude of the project. Paradox Interactive has signed on to publish the ambitious old-school RPG (a spiritual successor to Baldur’s Gate, Planescape Torment and IceWind Dale), so Obsidian can’t afford to go wrong with it.
Add to that Armored Warfare, an unexpected title from Obsidian, and we start to get the image of a studio with a considerable workload. Armored Warfare will be a direct competitor to World of Tanks, so it has to be done right, and Obsidian frankly doesn’t have the experience in developing such a game, so there’s a lot of pressure on the RPG developer. Still, from the first footage revealed, Armored Warfare at least manages to look great (a lot better than World of Tanks, no doubt), and brings realistic physics and a dynamic environment that is ripe for blowing up. You can take a look at the game’s first trailer below.
So why not Fallout 4? There’s one last argument why it’s unlikely Obsidian will undertake the task of developing Fallout 4, and this argument comes from the company’s recruitment ads. It seems Obsidian is hiring for multiple positions, all of which are aimed at developing a “highly stylized MMORPG”. The positions include Level Designers, Character Artists and Concept Artists, so this unknown MMORPG is definitely in an early stage. It’s not Armored Warfare, that’s for sure, simply because the tank game, despite being intended as a multiplayer experience, is in no way an RPG. Does this mean Fallout 4 could be an MMORPG developed by Obsidian?
Most certainly not. MMORPGs cost heaps to develop and are risky undertakings, with financial success not being a guarantee. See what happened with Bioware’s Star Wars: The Old Republic if you need facts to back up this claim. Obsidian simply doesn’t have the financial reserves to work on a Fallout 4 MMORPG, a project that would likely cost hundreds of millions of dollars to develop. Besides, Bethesda is just releasing Elder Scrolls Online next week, so it’s highly doubtful it would go for transforming another successful franchise into an MMORPG, despite Fallout having a perfect setting for such an idea. No, it’s clear Obsidian is working on something else, and how huge of an MMORPG it plans on developing is anyone’s guess. It’s not Fallout 4 though, that much is pretty obvious.
In any case, Obsidian seems to be doing well. With an MMO Combat game, a classic RPG and a future MMORPG in the works, they seem to have a bright future ahead. Let’s hope Bethesda will find another competent studio to develop Fallout 4 though, or keep the project internal, whenever (if ever) they decide to go along with it.